2025 Romanian Presidential Election Polls Reveal a Nation Divided

As Romania heads into a pivotal presidential election year, newly released polling data from FlashData (April 24–26) paints a stark picture of a country fractured along ideological, generational, and geopolitical lines. The stakes have rarely been higher, with the leading candidates representing profoundly different visions for the country’s domestic and foreign policy.

None of the frontrunners has a first‑round path to power, forcing a runoff that could collide head‑on with the fiscal reckoning outlined by JPMorgan.

J.P. Morgan’s fresh report “Romania: Political chess, fiscal check‑mate?” (Apr 29, 2025) reviews the country’s sizeable fiscal and external gaps (‑9.3 % and ‑8.4 % of GDP, respectively) and underlines the need for a credible post‑election adjustment plan. The bank’s scenario matrix points clearly to the following conclusion: a victory for Crin Antonescu is seen as the pathway most likely to safeguard stability, preserve Romania’s investment‑grade standing and attract fresh capital, while a George Simion win is judged the most challenging for markets, a result that could trigger temporary capital outflows and pressure on bond spreads pending policy clarity.

Three-Way Collision Course

The FlashData poll, conducted among 7,500 adults with a margin of error of ±3.5%, reflects a volatile and polarized electorate. 

Simion’s rise has been driven by a surge of anti-establishment sentiment, fueled by his relentless critique of the European Union, the political elite, and what he calls the “deep state.”

Yet, despite a series of domestic controversies — including allegations of secretive foreign lobbying and associations with pro-Kremlin narratives — Simion’s message has resonated strongly with rural voters, younger nationalists, and parts of the diaspora.

Crin Antonescu’s return to the national stage after nearly a decade of political absence has surprised many. A seasoned statesman with center-right credentials, Antonescu is widely seen as the candidate of continuity and democratic stability. His second-round viability is perhaps unmatched: polling shows he would defeat both Simion and Dan in direct runoffs, thanks to his ability to attract support from PSD, PNL, and centrist independents.

Nicușor Dan, once the anti-corruption standard-bearer, has seen his support falter amid Bucharest management failures and mounting legal troubles. Though he retains significant urban and diaspora support, questions about his management of Bucharest’s finances — and a wave of fines from regulatory agencies — may cap his ceiling in the first round.

Runoff Scenarios: A Nation at a Crossroads

Second-round simulations present a sobering array of outcomes:

These figures suggest that while Simion’s base is fervent and mobilized, it remains narrowly ideological. Antonescu, by contrast, could emerge as a consensus president — a figure capable of steadying Romania’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory in an era of strategic uncertainty.

Romanian Presidential Election – 2025 Candidate Dossiers

Romania’s 2025 presidential race presents one of the most ideologically diverse fields since the fall of communism. From firebrand nationalists to technocrats, from security-state veterans to progressive local mayors, the spectrum of choices spans nearly every segment of Romanian society and political thought. Some candidates boast decades of political or diplomatic experience, while others have risen from grassroots movements or media backgrounds. As the country grapples with economic uncertainty, regional instability, and questions over its democratic trajectory, these figures offer radically different visions for Romania’s place in Europe and the world.

Summary Comparison Table

1. George-Nicolae Simion (AUR) – 38 years old

A civic activist turned politician, Simion leads the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and tops polls with a nationalist-sovereigntist and anti-establishment message.

• Domestic experience – Member of Parliament since 2020; AUR leader since 2019; founder of civic network “Action 2012.”
• International/diplomatic experience – Vice President of the ECR Party (2025); participated in European forums; banned from entering Moldova until 2030 and warned by Ukraine (2025).
• Presidential compatibility – Charismatic and energetic; lacks executive experience; polarizing rhetoric.
• Skills – Grassroots organizing, mobilizing speech, online campaign architecture.
• Languages – Romanian (native), English (advanced); claims French and Russian.
• Controversies / Corruption – Investigated by the electoral authority for hidden campaign funding and a $1.5 million US lobbying contract; criminal complaint filed by SNSPA rector (April 2025); lost lawsuit regarding alleged meetings with Russian agents; father under investigation for threatening a judge.
• International relations – Strained ties with Moldova and Ukraine; court ruling confirmed plausibility of Russian contacts.
• Financing & foreign influence – Undisclosed donors, paid TV interviews (€2,000–5,000); AUR denies any lobbying contract; investigation ongoing.
• Intelligence services – Named in 2024 SRI reports regarding Russian interference; he denies any ties.
• Pros ⇢ Popular appeal; authentic political brand; strong diaspora backing.
• Cons ⇢ Euroskeptic; risks Western isolation; under multiple investigations; financial opacity.

2. George-Crin-Laurențiu Antonescu (Ahead Romania) – 65 years old

Former interim President (2012) and ex-leader of the National Liberal Party, returns as the consensus figure of the centrist “Romania Ahead” coalition.

• Domestic – MP (1992–2008), Senator (2008–2016), President of the Senate (2012–14).
• International/Diplomacy – Chaired the Supreme Defense Council and represented Romania at the UN; strong ties with the ALDE European family.
• Presidential compatibility – Constitutional veteran; accepted by major parties; seen as a “statesman.”
• Skills – Classic orator, skilled in legislative-executive negotiation.
• Languages – Romanian, French, English.
• Controversies – No issues.
• International relations – Viewed as pro-EU; cautious toward Russia.
• Financing – Traditional PSD/PNL sources.
• Intelligence – No known connections.
• Pros ⇢ Extensive state experience; diplomatic networks; moderate profile.
• Cons ⇢ Long absence from politics during which he raised his daughter.

3. Marcela-Lavinia Șandru (PUSL) – 50 years old

Former TV personality and MP, returning with an eco-humanist message.

• Domestic – MP (2004–2008); former leader of PIN; VP of UNPR.
• International – Brief member of the CULT Committee in the European Parliament (2003).
• Skills – Public relations, political talk shows, image campaigns.
• Languages – Romanian, English, French.
• Controversies – Public disputes with PSD and PC; no criminal record.
• Financing – Alleged closeness to Dan Voiculescu’s media group; limited resources.
• Pros ⇢ Excellent communicator; social-liberal message.
• Cons ⇢ No office since 2008; low support base.

4. Nicușor-Daniel Dan (Independent) – 55 years old

Mathematician and civic activist, current Mayor of Bucharest, supported by a broad right-wing extra-parliamentary coalition.

• Domestic – Mayor of Bucharest (2020–present); MP (2016–2020); founder of USR.
• International – Represents Bucharest in the Green Capital network; active in the EU Committee of the Regions.
• Skills – Technical analysis, urban policy, environmental strategy.
• Languages – Romanian (native), French (C2), English (C1).
• Controversies – Referred to the prosecutor’s office (April 2025) for misusing donations; accused of covert campaign financing via Matei Păun; Bucharest City Hall carries €1.4 billion debt, with talks of insolvency (April 2025); 37 infrastructure projects stalled; €20,000/day penalties from STB for procurement delays, with STB itself on the verge of bankruptcy; conflict with the Finance Ministry over ELCEN payments; accused of delaying the Oncology Hospital permit by two years; fined by the Environmental Guard; accused of ignoring court rulings; personal fines allegedly paid with public funds.
• Financing – Declared micro-donors; consultancy contracts with Matei Păun remain undisclosed.
• Pros ⇢ Academic integrity; pro-EU stance; urban support.
• Cons ⇢ Ongoing criminal inquiry; poor financial management record; technocratic and unemotional style.

5. Elena-Valerica Lasconi (USR) – 53 years old

Former ProTV journalist and current mayor of Câmpulung, briefly led USR in 2024.

• Domestic – Mayor (2020–present); known for urban and digital reforms.
• International / Diplomatic – Engaged in smart cities network and EU lobbying.
• Presidential compatibility – Reformist image, anti-corruption discourse; little national policy exposure.
• Skills – Television communication, local leadership, crisis management.
• Languages – Romanian, English, French.
• Controversies – Lost party support after 2018 statements on the “traditional family” referendum, which clashed with her daughter’s views.
• Financing – Transparent, crowdfunded campaign.
• Intelligence – None.
• Pros ⇢ Clean image; energetic; strongly pro-Western.
• Cons ⇢ No national experience; intra-party divisions; social conservatism vs liberal base.

6. Victor-Viorel Ponta (Independent) – 52 years old

Former Prime Minister with European experience, attempting a comeback as a technopopulist independent.

• Domestic – Prime Minister (2012–15); PSD leader (2010–15); MP since 2004.
• International – Chaired EU Council on Justice; regular participant in European Council.
• Diplomacy – Negotiated with IMF, developed strategic partnerships.
• Skills – Legal expertise, skilled negotiator.
• Languages – Romanian, English, French.
• Controversies – Acquitted in “Turceni-Rovinari” criminal case (2015); plagiarism confirmed by CNATDCU in doctoral thesis (2003).
• Financing – Backed by Pro Romania network; past scrutiny over Israeli consultants.
• Pros ⇢ Government experience; international connections.
• Cons ⇢ Stigma from past scandals; public distrust; viewed as old-guard politician.

7. Cristian-Vasile Terheș (PNCR) – 46 years old

Suspended Greek-Catholic priest turned MEP, known for opposing pandemic restrictions.

• Domestic – Leader of PNCR since 2023; no executive positions.
• International – MEP (2019–present); ECR Group member; lobbies for diaspora in US Congress.
• Diplomacy – Part of EU-US Parliamentary delegation.
• Skills – Public speaking, bilingual media presence, crisis messaging.
• Languages – Romanian, English, functional Spanish.
• Controversies – Anti-vaccine rhetoric; lost lawsuits with PNȚCD; flagged for disinformation by EDMO.
• Financing – Supported by ultraconservative circles; financial details unclear.
• Intelligence – No evidence of links.
• Pros ⇢ European platform; diaspora backing; clear conservative narrative.
• Cons ⇢ Polarizing figure; lacks executive experience; anti-EU image.

8. Petru-Daniel Funeriu (Independent) – 54 years old

Chemist with a PhD from Strasbourg, former Minister of Education, architect of Law 1/2011.

• Domestic – Minister of Education (2009–12); presidential advisor (2012–14).
• International – MEP (2008–09); High-Level EU Advisor to Moldova (2017–present).
• Diplomacy – Negotiated EU-Moldova education agreements; science partnerships with TUM & Max Planck.
• Skills – Public policy, research management, multilingualism.
• Languages – Romanian, French (C2), English (C1), German (B2).
• Controversies – Investigated in the Microsoft case; no charges filed.
• Financing – Modest campaign; academic and NGO support.
• Pros ⇢ Integrity; technical expertise; EU credibility.
• Cons ⇢ Low charisma; limited political network.

9. Silviu Predoiu (PLAN) – 66 years old

Retired intelligence general with 30 years in the Foreign Intelligence Service (SIE), campaigning as a “security-first” candidate.

• Domestic – Deputy Director and interim Director of SIE (2005–18).
• International – Oversaw SIE foreign operations; NATO coordination.
• Diplomatic background – Maintained direct lines with CIA, MI6, DGSE.
• Skills – Counterintelligence, strategic analysis, crisis management.
• Languages – Romanian, English (C1), French, some Russian.
• Controversies – Accused by journalists of inflated contracts; no indictments.
• Financing – Nontransparent; rumored to have “deep state” support.
• Intelligence – Extensive SIE background; concerns over politicization.
• Pros ⇢ Security expert; global networks; discipline.
• Cons ⇢ Public fears of authoritarianism; opaque campaign; no electoral background.

10. Sebastian-Constantin Popescu (PNR) – 43 years old

Veterinarian turned anti-system activist, making his third bid for the presidency.

• Domestic – Founded PNR (2015); ran in 2019 and 2024.
• International – No official roles; promotes unification with Moldova.
• Skills – Social media use, grassroots activism.
• Languages – Romanian, English (B1).
• Controversies – Flagged by the Electoral Bureau for suspicious supporter lists in 2019 and 2025; links to conspiracy websites.
• Financing – Self-funded; irregularities in signatures suspected.
• Pros ⇢ Youthful; meritocratic message; genuine outsider.
• Cons ⇢ No experience; under electoral investigation; micro-party.

11. John-Ion Banu Muscel (Independent) – 64 years old

Romanian-American businessman and diaspora leader from Florida, advocates death penalty for corruption.

• Domestic – Founded PNRo (2017); presidential candidate in 2019.
• International – President of the Romanian-American League; lobbied in Tallahassee and Washington.
• Skills – Business leadership, bilingual advocacy, diaspora fundraising.
• Languages – Romanian, English.
• Controversies – Extreme proposals (capital punishment) conflict with EU charters; no legal cases.
• Financing – Self-financed; backed by expat donors.
• Pros ⇢ Transatlantic perspective; business background.
• Cons ⇢ Radical platform; no political office in Romania; small base.

Observations

• The race centers around Simion, Antonescu, Dan, and Ponta – the only candidates polling over 10% as of late April.
• Foreign interference concerns, especially Russian, dominate scrutiny of campaign financing and background vetting.
• The diaspora vote (over 1 million voters abroad) could prove decisive — candidates with strong EU ties and international credibility (Lasconi, Dan, Funeriu) are best positioned here.

Europe Is Watching

The outcome of this election will have deep implications not just for Romania but for the entire region. With tensions in Eastern Europe running high, and disinformation campaigns on the rise, the next president will play a critical role in shaping Romania’s response to Russian aggression, EU policy alignment, and NATO security commitments.

Analysts warn that a Simion presidency could destabilize relations with Brussels and Kiev, while a Dan administration may lack the political capital to navigate Romania through economic headwinds. Antonescu, though older and more traditional in his approach, is being touted by diplomats as the safest pair of hands.

What’s Next?

With just weeks remaining until the official campaign begins, the race is far from settled. Debates, endorsements, and scandals will almost certainly shift the balance. But one fact is undeniable: Romania is standing at a historic crossroads.

We’ll continue following this evolving story closely. Bookmark our page, check back daily for fresh updates, and don’t forget to leave your comments below. Your voice matters — now more than ever.